Bashlaeva I.S., Barakov V.S. MECHANISMS AND INSTRUMENTS FOR ENSURING REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH BASED ON A FORECASTING MODEL’S: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15688/ek.jvolsu.2025.4.6
Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Department of Economic Theory, Regional Economy and Entrepreneurship, Volgograd State University, Prosp. Universitetsky, 100, 400062 Volgograd, Russian Federation, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. , https://orcid.org/00000002-1100-3421
Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Department of Economic Theory, Regional Economy and Entrepreneurship, Volgograd State University, Prosp. Universitetskiy, 100, 400062 Volgograd, Russian Federation, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. , https://orcid.org/ 0009-0006-7639-0377
Abstract. This article examines domestic and international practices for forecasting regional economic growth based on various models (neoclassical, cumulative, “new,” and others) that reflect reasonable assumptions about future regional economic developments, as well as alternative directions and potential timeframes for their implementation. The analysis reveals not only the characteristic features of these models but also their strengths and weaknesses. The study also revealed the possibility of classifying models by a number of criteria: reliability, time ranges (by timeframe), scale, depending on the modeling method used, depending on the set of factors, etc. Using the ETS method (exponential smoothing), a short-term (up to 3 years) economic development forecast for the regions of the Southern Federal District for 2026-2027 was constructed. Based on the forecast, practical recommendations have been developed for the territorial entities of the Russian Federation for its implementation (in the case of positive forecast values) and for improving the situation (in the case of negative forecast values), depending on the specifics of regional development at the current stage.
Key words: regional economy, economic growth, regional economic development, forecasting models, comparative analysis.
MECHANISMS AND INSTRUMENTS FOR ENSURING REGIONAL ECONOMIC GROWTH BASED ON A FORECASTING MODEL’S: A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS by Bashlaeva I.S., Barakov V.S. is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
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