Ovcharov D.A., Russkova E.G. OPTIMAL INDICATOR OF INFLATION TARGETING POLICY
DOI: https://doi.org/10.15688/ek.jvolsu.2026.1.1
Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Department of Economic Theory, Regional Economy and Business Entrepreneurship, Volgograd State University, Prosp. Universitetsky, 100, 400062 Volgograd, Russian Federation, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. , https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7227-0358
Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, Vice Rector, Volgograd State University, Prosp. Universitetsky, 100, 400062 Volgograd, Russian Federation, This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. , https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9392-3642
Abstract. Three levels of trust deployment are defined and corresponding fundamental criteria for selecting the target indicator of inflation targeting policy are proposed. The inflation indicator currently used by the Bank of Russia – the consumer price index (CPI) – was analyzed for compliance with the proposed selection criteria. The CPI was found to meet only one criterion, which creates a low level of confidence among economic agents in the inflation data provided by Rosstat, hindering the effective functioning of the transmission mechanism. It has been established that Rosstat forms an inflation estimate as the average purchase price index. At the same time, the overwhelming majority of economic participants formulate an assessment of inflation as an average price index, which is simpler and more understandable for ordinary economic entities due to the “straightforward” methodology of its calculation. To increase the confidence of economic participants in the data on the target indicator, it was recommended to substitute the consumer price index for the (price) index of the cost of expenses for the consumer basket, which is numerically equal to the consumer price index, but has a “straightforward” calculation methodology.
Key words: monetary policy, inflation targeting policy, consumer price index, selection criteria for target indicator of monetary policy, inflation expectation.
OPTIMAL INDICATOR OF INFLATION TARGETING POLICY by Ovcharov D.A., Russkova E.G. is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
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